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Contents:
????????
(??????????,????????)
????????????????.????????????.???????????.???????.?????????.???,ECB??????.???????????????????????pigs??????.
????????????????.???????.?????????????.?????????????:??CDS????.?CDS??????????????????.?????????CDS????:??!????.??????????????.????????.?????????AIG?????.????.???:1.????????????.???????.???????.2.??????????.????????,???????.??????.?????????.??????:
counterparty risk index
????,???????????,????????????.????AUD/JPY,USD/JPY????.???????????.2008???????????(????????{????????} )??????.??????!???????????????.??????????.
????????-8?????,??????-2~+3?.?????-8????????,????????.+5?????????.?????????????.???????+5,?????.??????????.???g7??,????????????.????????????????,?????????????..????????????,?????.
????:???????????.????????:1.??,2.????,3.????????.??????,????.???????.?????????.??????.
????????
 ?????????????
????????????,??,?????????.??????????????????:
?????????.???1??????????3?????.????????.??1??????8??.
?????????.???1??????1?????,????????,???4??,??2???????????.
????????????.????8??,????????.???????.
??????????:
??????8??20????????.
?????6??.
?????8+8+4=20??.
?3???:
???1?????,???4????,????2??????.????????????????.???????????????.?????????????????.???????!
??????????????.??????????????.??????????.??????????????????.
??????,??????????.1???=1???=3???=??2??.???????3???????.??????????????3????????.?????????.?????????????.?????????.??????????????????.???????????100???,???????,???????????????.?????????.?????.
??.????????????.??????????(3???).??????????????????.????????.
????????????.????????????.????????.???????4???????.????,???????????????.????????,????????,???8???2???.?????,?????(??????????.?????...),?????????.???????????.1???=2???=2???.?????.????????3?.???????5?(????????,???2?).?????????(???????????????).?????????.????????.??????..???????2??????,???1???=0.5???.???????.?????????.???????????????:1.?????????????,2.?????????????.
???????????:???,??????,?????10???,???7????????.?????????????????.??????????,??????????.???????????.??????,????????,???????????.
????,??????,??.????????.????.?????????????.?????????????.??2010????????,????????????,????????..???????.....?
????:
?????????????2008???? 
??2009 Q4??GDP+5.7%???
 2009 Q4??GDP????+5.7%,????????????,??????????:?????:GDP????????
???(Lawrence Summers)?:????????,????????????.
??(Christina Romer)?:???????GDP??????????????.????????????????????.????.
??+5.7%???2005????????GDP(?????),GDP deflator +0.6%???????.??GDP=6.3%??.(??????)
GDP?????:
Current-dollar and "real" GDP
??2001??2008???,???GDP????????CPI????????.??GDP??????.??????????????
??CPI????2%,core CPI??2???,?TIP??-10??????2.3%(??????????2.6%),GDP Deflator ??50???.????????????
????,GDP????+5%???-5%??,???????V???,????.???????????,????.(ps:?????,?????????????????????(?????)???)
????????(????,??????...??????..)
????:
?????????????(?) 
??SEC???????:???????????
 SEC adopts new rules governing money market funds Marketwatch.com
Taxable money market funds must keep at least 10% of assets in cash, Treasury securities or other securities that can be converted to cash within a day.
All money market funds, in addition, must keep at least 30% of assets in cash, Treasurys or government securities maturing in 60 days or less that can be converted to cash within a week.
Moreover, money market funds now can keep only 5% of assets in illiquid securities, down from 10%. "Illiquid" means any security that cannot be sold or unloaded with seven days at carrying value.
??2008??????????.??????????.????????.??????,?????FED??????????.????,???????,???????????????.????????.????????????????.??????????????.???????????.
????:iShares IBoxx $ Invst Grade Bd Fd (ETF) (Public, NYSE:LQD)
????????????????????????.????????.???????????.
???????????????!
 ???????"6A????????":???????????????????????????????,????????????6A??????????? ??????!????????????,???????????,?????????????????????????????!
????????????<--????????.??????????????!
???1998????,???????30~35?????.?????????????,???????????.?????????????.???????????.????2001??????????(??????????).?????????2000???????.??????????????????.??????????????:???????????????????,?????????????.?????????????.??,???????????????3?!(?????? ??????3?).??????1?.??????????????940?!
?????????.???????!???0.5%,????????150????.???.?????,???????.??????????????.2008???????,???????????????.????????????.????????,????2007??????.1997???????????????.??????,???,????????????????.1980?~1995?,?????17%??6%.?2000?????????????????.??0.5%~5%.????????????????.
??????.????????.???????????.???????????????.????????????.??????????.2008?????????????(??:??????????????? )???????????,???????????????????????,??????????????.????????7?????????(???:??????????? )???????????????.2008?????????,???????????????.????.?????????????!?????????????.?????????.???????????,????????????????.??08?6???????.?????????????.???"???????".?????.?????????????????????.???????????????????????.
??????????????.????????????2008?????????,????????????.????????????????,????..
??????????.??????????????.????????????????,????????????,??????,??????????????.????????????????.?????????.????????.??????.????????????!???????????????"????",??????????????????.????????????!
?????,????????????????.???????????????.???????.???????????????,??????????????????.????????.???????????.??????,??????????????????????????!
PS:???????????.????.
????:
??????????????35??? <---?????????????40,?????,???????.???????4000?
??????????(Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee)????
 ?????????????????????? (Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee),???2011????????????????500??????????50?????,????????????????????????????????,???????????????????(????????????????????)???,???0.15%?
???????????????.?????????????????.????????????.????.??????????????????.??????!!
????????????:
http://doc.twse.com.tw/pdf/200903_2801_A02_20100119_153754.pdf
????????????!
????1.1?,??800?.?????14?.???????????,?????????.???????????.????????????2%??!?????????,?????.??????.???????????????.?????????????.??????FED,??????.???????????????????.??????????????????....
??????????????.
????:
???????????(?):?????(Liquidity Trap)
2010????????
??????????????,???21???????????????!????????????????????.????????????????2005???5/29????????????.
????????????????????!
???????????<---??2006?????????????????.?????????????.06??????????????????.
2008~2009?????.?????????.?????????:
???:?????? ????????
????????,??,blog?????????????..???FED??????????.??????????.???????????...
2009?12?.?????????????.??????.?????????????:
?????????? (FT-chinese)
???????,???????????????????,?????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????????????????????????????????,????????,????????????????“????”????????????????????????????????,??????????????(competitive disinflation)??....
????????????????????.????"???"?????.???????????!?????pigs??(???,???,??,???)???,?????09??????????.????????????????.
??????????(Robert Alexander Mundell).????????????????.?????????.?????????!???????????????.???????????.???????.???????!
?????.???,???,????????.pigs???????12??B???.????????.??IMF??.????.2010Q1.???????????.?????????.
????:
????CDS??????
?????????????????? 
????????(Naoto Kan)????
 ???????????,??????????????:
1.??????.
2.??95?????.
3.????????????.
???????????.???????.????????????????.????????????.???????????????....??????.?????????.
???:???????????????
?????????????.?????????????????.???????????????.??????????.??????????????.2002?.????????.?????????.???????????????????.
????,????.?????????????.???????.???????,??????.?????.?????????,?????????,?????????????.????????????.????20?,??????????,??????.
??????,????????,??.???????????????.??????.????????????.
???????.?????,?????????????.(????????).???????????????????.???????1999???????????,???????.???????????.
????:
???????????(Masaaki Shirakawa)?? 
2010?????????
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