Guest Post: How McCain can beat Obama
Editor's Note: This is the third in a series of guest posts by political strategist Ed Grefe. For more on Grefe as well as his previous posts, click here.
John McCain should be elected the next President of the United States.
It’s really his election to lose. How he handles himself in terms of setting
the agenda and delivering his message to the country will make the difference.
In politics there are a lot of slogans. Most are linked to experience.
When it comes to strategy and staying on message, they include:
- March to the sound of your own drummer
- Build from your own strength
- With a clear message and a coherent strategy you may win, you may lose; without either you will lose – so stick to your game plan.
There are many issues that could serve as the basis for
voters to make up their mind. One will be the wars – in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in areas of the world where Al Qaeda units are gestating.A second issue – the nation is looking for
someone who is not wedded to old ideas.
If McCain trumpets his military experience and forces voters
to focus on national security, he trumps the novice Obama with zero credentials.
If he reinforces his image as an insider who has always been an outsider, his spotlight
will upstage the ingénue.
Here’s why. In a
nutshell we will not elect this year a person who has not actually served in
the military.
And we will favor the “maverick” with experience over the
“maverick” with none. Obama's statement that he would reach out to Raul Castro, Ahmadinejad, Chavez or current Palestinian leavers sounds noble and could win him votes in Cuba, Iran and some barrios around Caracas. But it is doubtful that he'd get many votes among Cuban-Americans or among those American Jews who see no role for a separate Palestine.
We’ve now experienced eight disastrous years of military and
foreign affairs directed by civilian “arm chair generals” – notably led by our
Commander-in-Chief, his Angel of Death VP, and the Rumsfeld neo-con “rat pack”.
None have ever heard a shot fired in anger (well, maybe we have to count the
VP’s shot of a friend as something). Having no first hand experience in battle
they dismissed the one person – Colin Powell – who had actually been in the
midst of conflict and held in his arms a dying man.
In many ways, the Bush II gang seemed more at home in the 19th
century. Prior to World War I the popular literature of the preceding century suggested
that war was a glorious activity. Whether in novels or poetry, the quixotic
“charge of the light brigade” enthralled young men and led them to believe that
life was all about winning fame and lots of medals.
Everyone in Europe knew war
on the Continent was coming, and everyone thought that when it did that it
would be a grand affair. No wonder there were parties in the streets in Paris, London, and Berlin as war ensued
within days after Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated. The men called
upon to fight ultimately became part of Hemingway’s “lost generation” in
pursuit of what became a most ignoble activity.
“W” has had the same illusions – stirred by equally
passionate, but equally inexperienced hands.
U.S. voters are not about to make
the same mistake – at least not so closely to the aftermath of “W.” We are
reminded daily of W’s incompetence as troops called upon repeatedly to fill
critical needs through “stop loss” commands join yet another “lost generation”
of men and women used as fodder for his folly.
Obama has run a good primary fight. He has excited lots of
people. He may lose some votes because of his race. But, his ultimate undoing
is his inexperience – especially in the over-arching national security issues.
Beyond that the Obama appeal to the under 30 crowd will be offset by McCain’s
attraction based on his own “maverick” credentials. Witness the MSM – smitten
by both, swayable by both, a net tie for both.
McCain does have an Achilles heel. He has a tendency to want
to discuss every issue, many of which the Democrats own. Many domestic issues
could be land mines easily avoided by an old soldier if he’ll march only to the
sound of his own drums.
In health care – McCain refuses to support universal health
care for children. He also opposes adequate care for returning veterans. He has
no experience with those who cannot afford the health care the luxury of his
family enjoys, and he seems bent on forcing folks to stay in the military by
denying them benefits if they leave.
In the mortgage crisis – he appears clueless, again because
of his family’s wealth. His principal economic advisor, former U.S. Senator
Phil Gram of Texas,
has never missed a meal and has no trouble ignoring those who have. The McCain
economic advisors make a ton of money working for banks and other asset
management firms – so they have a comfort level only with financial empire
welfare.
McCain has good advisors. He has struggled so long to get to
the White House he will probably pay them heed. They know enough to pound away
on his strengths and to avoid those issues which play to his weakness. Staying that course should see him elected.
